![]() ![]() Other philosophers and scientists work hard at proving why Boltzmann brains cannot exist. Some proponents use this concept to explain why the Universe seems so incredibly well-ordered. It therefore follows that given infinite time, they could randomly generate a self-aware brain, but it wouldn't necessarily comprehend anything beyond its own experience. Quantum mechanics suggest that the smallest amounts of energy can occasionally generate a molecule of matter. Essentially, it is the idea that humans are one random coming-together of matter in a multiverse where there are many more things than we will ever know about. Similar is the Boltzmann brain concept, named in 2004 after the physicist Ludwig Boltzmann. At the FHI, Bostrom says that this thinking is considered because it "is a constraint on what you might believe about the future and our place in the world". The simulation hypothesis is the supposition that humans, with all our history and culture, are just an experiment or plaything of a bigger entity, as explored in The Truman Show. ("It's a pretty wonderful community actually," Sandberg says.) That may be enough to cause worry, but it's reassuring to know that a) astronomers keep a close eye on larger objects posing a danger to Earth, and b) there is a whole interdisciplinary community of scientists working out what to do if they get too close. The really serious, existential-threat-level strikes, such as the 180km Chicxulub impactor, which wiped out the dinosaurs around 66 million years ago, come once every 50 to 100 million years. Every million years an asteroid spanning at least one kilometre will also hit Earth, which can be enough to affect its climate and cause crop failures that would put the population at risk. The planet is hit by an asteroid or comet measuring more than ten metres once or twice every 1,000 years. This is convenient, as even a ten-metre rock builds up kinetic energy equivalent to that of the Hiroshima nuclear bomb. An asteroid impact destroys all traces of lifeĮarth would be hit by small asteroids constantly were it not for the atmosphere, which burns up anything less than ten metres in width. If that seems scary, consider too that a new arms race could speed the development of risky AI, including machines capable of acquiring arms.Ħ. We already have stuff that china can only dream of." Russell recalls hearing a US military figure say at a conference, "Bring it on. ![]() Stuart Russell, a computer-science professor at the University of California Berkeley, worries that an arms-race mentality will kick in before rational debate and consensus-building leads to the UN ban of autonomous weapons currently under discussion. It's possible to imagine a world where you wake up in the morning to news that another list of cities has been destroyed, and no one knows for certain who is behind the attacks." ![]() The most dystopian scenario is that military power would become so removed from the size of a state that, as Tallinn says:"You might have five guys with two truckfuls of tiny automated weapons taking out whole cities. However, they will also be so small and cheap that ownership will be discoupled from statehood. Sandberg suspects that because of the divergent conditions that would need to coincide, the "lone person" scenario is far less likely than "a disgruntled post-doc, or a laboratory accident due to a biotech startup cutting corners". When CSER carried out similar research, it led to an important, practical present-time insight: biotech labs have no provision for psychological profiling of their employees. This has led him to analyse the extent to which religions and cults might sanction mass murder (most don't, according to Sandberg). There is very little source material," Sandberg says. "It's hard going actually because relatively few people want to do it. Researcher and author Anders Sandberg is working on a paper exploring the motives of people who, in a Bond-villain mould, want to destroy humanity. ![]() One possibility is the disgruntled individual, perhaps a lab employee, who might create or steal a virus and travel around the world releasing it. The FHI has studied the "pipeline risk" for how such viruses might escape. In the 21st century, advanced biotechnology could create something that makes the black death look like a nasty cold. In the past, natural pandemics such as the black death have killed millions and effected wholesale social changes. Whereas a nuclear explosion is localised, in our highly connected world a synthetic, incurable virus could spread around the planet in days. The risk here is particularly great because it is self-replicating. ![]()
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